Economy

Who Will Beat the Donald?

By David Stockman  |  September 26, 2019

Things have jumped to a whole new level in Imperial Washington.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is coming after the emperor. If she misses – if this impeachment lands like Prosecutor Mueller’s report – well, let’s just say there’s more than just her gavel at stake.

But, first, let’s cut through the bullshit: All Presidents of the United States bribe foreign governments; it’s called “foreign aid.”

That this is the move that gets the Donald in Nancy’s hoosegow tells you all about priorities in the Imperial City.

Let’s say this gets to the Senate. It’s an extremely remote possibility that 20 Republicans would vote along with the 47 Democrats in the upper chamber to convict the president.

Meanwhile, you have CNBC reporting things like, “Wall Street Democratic donors warn the party: We’ll sit out, or back Trump, if you nominate Elizabeth Warren.”

This is the same day other Mainstream Media outlets are saying Pelosi’s capitulation at this stage is an indication Elizabeth Warren is the de facto leader of the party.

UkraineGate is a problem for the president. But it will also help the Tweeter-in-Chief define Joe Biden, just like he did “Crooked Hillary.”

And it becomes ever clearer that the Donald ain’t going nowhere, at the very least until January 2021.

Update on the Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down more than 100 points as of the noon hour. But that’s just 0.4%. And the CBOE Volatility Index is only creeping up off the midweek lows it reached Wednesday; there’s been no spike in the market’s “fear gauge.”

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury slipped from 1.735% to 1.642% right after Pelosi’s impeachment intentions leaked. It’s up off early September’s lows. But there does seem to be some safe-haven-seeking happening today.

Still, the season has changed, as Michael Coolbaugh notes in his Thursday commentary on markets. There is some pleasantness to that, when you look outside at the shifting color-scape. But there’s also a lot of work to be done – for maintenance and for growth.

Amid mounting evidence of the negative effects Bubble Finance is having on the American economy, Michael warns, “We find ourselves in one of the most severe episodes of mispricing in history.”

Monetary central planning has gotten in the way of the natural economic order. The Donald complicates things. That’s going to create volatility. That’s also going to create opportunity.

Here’s Michael to set us for “the fall”…

I Love This Time of Year

By Michael Coolbaugh

After spending the last nine years in cities surrounded by concrete and bricks, my wife and I made the decision to finally purchase a house with a yard.

As we toured homes throughout Connecticut, I’d marvel at the luscious green lawns and the beautiful canopy of trees that lined every street. I thought, “Now this is what I could get used to.”

Having spent my entire life in the northeast, I’ve become accustomed to the beautiful change in scenery each fall. But it wasn’t until we purchased our first home last fall that I became intimately familiar with the less-than-glorious aspects that accompany those changing leaves.

Growing up, you miss all the hard work that goes into maintaining that green lawn or cleaning up all those beautiful yellow and red leaves.

So, in trying to be a responsible new homeowner, I took the time to spread a lawn treatment a little over a month ago. The product promises to kill weeds while feeding your lawn to build strong, deep roots to crowd out future weeds.

And, now, as I sit out on my back patio, admiring all the brown spots throughout my lawn, I can’t help but question if I made the right decision.

I’ve checked with my local hardware store, and they assure me that one more feeding of grass seed later this fall and I’ll have the best-looking lawn in my neighborhood come next spring.

A Healthy Economy Experiences Cycles

You see, just as with your annual lawn treatment, for true prosperity, an economy must experience its own cycle of cleansing, healing, and nourishment.

The weeds must die to clear way for healthy, strong, and green grass.

Truth is, policymakers hate brown spots. They feel they’re marks of failure, and so they religiously apply water to prevent them. Problem is, they fail to see that come next spring, there are more weeds…

Our monetary central planners continue to water the weak and unprofitable corporations. They refuse to kill the weeds to make way for more productive enterprises.

McDermott (NYSE: MDR) is just the most recent example of a “shock” event where a bond just seems clueless due to the Federal Reserve and passive investing.

Here’s a chart of a bond issued by privately held Toys “R” Us…

In a world where the surge in passive investment has reduced the scrutiny of asset valuations, we find ourselves in one of the most severe episodes of mispricing in history.

These sorts of “wandering into potholes”-type events are starting to happen more and more in the corporate debt market.

After “Peak Trump”: Charting Uncharted Waters

It’s my pleasure to be delivering the Keynote Address at the 2019 Irrational Economic Summit.

Please join me October 10-12 at the Gaylord Resort & Convention Center at National Harbor, Maryland – right outside Imperial Washington – for what promises to be three days rich with ideas about how to protect and grow your wealth.

The stakes are already high heading into 2020. The U.S. presidential campaign is already underway. And the Tweeter-in-Chief is tied up in the day-to-day movements of the major stock indexes like no president before him.

And the increasingly desperate incumbent will do anything he must to hold the White House.

That’s why I’ve titled my Keynote Address, “After ‘Peak Trump’: Charting Uncharted Waters”.

Leviathan gets bigger, Wall Street gets richer, and Main Street… well, Main Street gets more and more little every day.

We’re rapidly approaching the end of the oldest, weakest economic “recovery” in American history. At this major tipping point, there’s no telling what the Donald’s great disruptions could do to your wealth.

The 2019 Irrational Economic Summit is fast approaching too. To reserve your spot today, simply click here, email our team at conferences@dentresearch.com, or call 866-765-7506.

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David Stockman

David Stockman is the ultimate Washington insider turned iconoclast. He began his career in Washington as a young man and quickly rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to become the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street.MORE FROM AUTHOR